Will mortgage interest rates go up or down in 2021? What would be the market consequences of either scenario? Unfortunately, we don’t have a crystal ball to see into, so arriving at a definitive answer is impossible. We are, however, equipped with a decade’s worth of market data proving a strong correlation between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate, or Treasury bills, which are sometimes referred to as “T-bills.” Today I want to bring to your attention an interesting recent divergence in that correlation and share my own prediction for what rates will do this year. In short, they’ll stay low, but not for lack of upward pressure.
Cited below for your convenience are timestamps that will direct you to various points in the video. Feel free to watch the full message or use these timestamps to skip to topics that interest you most:
0:54 — Laying the groundwork for today’s topic with an earlier video on the 10-year Treasury bill
1:48 — A graph displaying the strong correlation between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate
2:30 — The intriguing divergence in the data starting on August 6, 2020
3:44 — Mortgage rates have started inching up in 2021; most borrowers will see rates in the 3s
4:19 — My prediction: Despite pressure, rates will stay low throughout 2021
5:04 — Buyers and refinancers: Act now before the window closes
If you found this information helpful, stay tuned; I’ll be preparing another video that focuses on what will likely happen with real estate prices throughout 2021 and beyond. As always, reach out by phone or email if you have questions about this or any other real estate topic. I’m happy to be a resource for you and assist with whatever buying, selling, or investing needs you may have.